Course Details
Course Outline
5 days course
Keys to successful forecasting process and function
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Problems and Needs
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Goals and Objectives
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Coordination and Leadership
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Process Management
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Forecast Model Development
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Communication with Participants and Users
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Four Forecasting Process Approaches
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Independent
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Concentrated
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Consensus
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One Number
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Myths About Forecasting
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Silo Forecasting Impact on Organization
Data patterns and demand variability
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The Bullwhip Effect
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Demand Variability and the Methods to Minimize It
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Recognition of Data Patterns
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What kind of problems to look for in the data and how to treat them
Inputs and outputs of demand plan
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Profit Potential
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Risk Management Input
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Operations Planning
Forecasting models: Qualitative / Quantitative
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How much data to use for different statistical models
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Subjective assessment models overview
Time series models
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Inherent assumptions
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When time series work and when they don’t
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Time series elements: Level, Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality, Noise
Cause and effect models
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Regression models
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When to use regression models
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Steps in development
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Key assumptions
Minimizing forecasting error
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Forecast error metrics
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Uses of forecast error measures
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Sources of error
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Error analysis, communication and remediation
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Exception driven forecasting process
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Relationship between MAPE / Bias, Customer Service and Inventory KPIs
New product forecasting
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New product success and error rates
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New product success and failure factors
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Issues to consider when developing new product forecasts
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Qualitative and Quantitative methods used in new product forecasting
Promotions forecast
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Promotions forecast error rates
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Manage the process for unplanned and abnormal demand
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Factors, issues, and considerations in developing romotions forecasts
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Cannibalization impact of promotions on base / open stock SKUs
Worst forecast practices summary and discussion
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Worst practices in the mechanics of forecasting
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Worst practices in forecasting process
Best forecasting practices summary
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Forecasting process
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Data collection and analysis
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Methods and models
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Software and systems
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Communications & People
